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A staff member debugs a humanoid robot at a robot company in Shenzhen, south China's Guangdong Province, June 25, 2025. (Xinhua/Li An)
With crippling trade tariffs, surging corporate costs and increasing market volatility, the convergence of tensions and disruptions in 2025 has clouded the global economic outlook, posing a profound test to the fortitude of economies worldwide.
Against this backdrop of profound uncertainty, where stability has become a precious commodity, China's economy emerges as a notable exception. Up 5.3 percent year on year in the first half of 2025 and contributing an estimated 30 percent to global expansion -- while many developed nations struggle to reach an annual growth of 2 percent -- it serves as a critical anchor for growth.
Such resilience is not a product of chance. It is the outcome of long-term thinking employed to navigate what China's leadership terms "changes unseen in a century." It is not a story of frequent, short-term crisis interventions, but of a deliberate, patient cultivation of structural resilience rooted in resolve.
Plan and deliver
China's strategy echoes the ancient wisdom of Sun Tzu, who wrote 2,500 years ago: "The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat." This philosophy of proactively mitigating risks is key to understanding China's grand economic strategy as a seasoned navigator of uncertainty.
The International Monetary Fund this week raised its 2025 growth forecast for China's economy to 4.8 percent, up significantly from the fund's 4 percent estimate in April, partly due to stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025.
China's economic resilience, as manifested in 2025, is deeply rooted in its tradition of long-term, strategic planning, embodied by the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025). A key feature of this plan is the emphasis on innovation-driven and high-quality development, which has played a pivotal role in helping the Chinese economy withstand internal and external shocks. By prioritizing quality over quantity, innovation over imitation, and resilience over reliance, China has long been prepared for crises beyond the horizon.
What makes China's planning remarkable is not just its vision, but its ability to deliver. The consistent achievement of these targets, demonstrated by, for example, surpassing milestones in new energy, digital infrastructure, and industrial upgrading, has created a strong, flexible foundation for the economy.
"China's resilience largely comes from the long-term objectives. Of course, there are pragmatic adaptations, but no hectic reactions that would create a bubble or stop-and-go effects," said Denis Depoux, global managing director of Roland Berger, a Munich-based consultancy.
While some analysts might have expected more massive support to the economy, the long-term objectives tell the truth and set a direction of continuous improvement, rather than short-term artificial support, Depoux told Xinhua in a recent interview.
Tom Fowdy, a British political and international-relations analyst, noted that the foundations of the Chinese economy are more robust than what they are given credit for, which is largely the product of years of approaches that have emphasized long-term stability rather than rapid, unsustainable growth.
"China's leadership has sought to prepare the domestic economy to more readily withstand external shocks, as part of what was described as 'dual circulation' several years back," Fowdy wrote in an opinion piece in the China Daily.
Since 2020, China has taken concrete steps to expand its domestic demand, positioning consumption as a fundamental driver of economic growth. These efforts have helped the economy maintain an average annual growth rate of 5.5 percent over the past four years, despite global volatility. On average, domestic demand contributed 86.4 percent to that growth.
Wednesday's Communist Party of China Central Committee Political Bureau meeting set economic priorities for this year's second half while preparing for October's plenary session, which will study the proposals for formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) for national economic and social development.
Analysts highlighted the meeting's significance in balancing immediate needs with long-term vision. This comprehensive approach helps buffer against external shocks and provides stability to the global economy amid rising uncertainty, protectionism and geopolitical tensions, contrasting with many Western economies that have shifted between policy extremes.
China's structural strengths have not only ensured the successful implementation of current development goals but also established a comprehensive framework for the forthcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), said Liu Chunsheng, an associate professor at the Beijing-based Central University of Finance and Economics.
Adaptive flexibility and innovation
While China boasts an enviable track record of running an economic marathon, critics point to challenges such as real estate correction, inadequate consumption, low inflation, and demographic shifts. These factors, they argue, are straining China's growth model.
However, these challenges, some of them exaggerated, represent the growing pains of economic transformation, not signals of systemic decline. As China shifts toward high-quality growth, service orientation, and innovation-led development, policy adjustments and temporary slowdowns in certain sectors are inevitable. Such structural transition pains are common in economic upgrading cycles worldwide.
China is well-equipped to manage this transitional period. Its robust and constantly evolving manufacturing base firmly supports supply chains and exports, providing the foundation for industrial upgrading and international competitiveness.
"China's economic resilience stems from corporate competitiveness and policy flexibility," said Song Yu, Chief China Economist at leading U.S. investment company BlackRock. "At the enterprise level, companies are showing strong adaptability and product innovation capabilities, particularly with notable advantages in sectors like electric vehicles (EVs)."
China is rapidly evolving from a major intellectual property importer to a leading global creator. For example, China's artificial intelligence (AI) patent applications had surpassed 1.5 million in number by the end of April this year, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the global total. Similarly, according to a Nikkei Asia report, China leads globally in EV patent quality despite filing fewer applications. The ascent in innovation prowess fosters enterprise innovation, integrates digital and real economies, boosts adaptability amid tensions, and draws foreign firms to its high-tech hubs.
Furthermore, timely governance adjustments have helped. Since September last year, positive shifts have emerged in macroeconomic regulation, industry supervision, and foreign policy. Examples include policy support for private enterprises and increased flexibility in trade tension responses, Song said during a media briefing on the mid-2025 investment outlook.
These developments have enhanced foreign investors' interest in the Chinese market, Song added, noting that both optimism and attention levels have recovered, creating a supportive effect for the market.
Recent data underscore this resilience. In the first half of 2025, exports increased 7.2 percent year on year overall, supported by a rise to ASEAN and steady gains to the EU. The EV sector continues to surge, with new energy vehicles now accounting for nearly half of new car sales nationwide and annual production and sales in 2024 exceeding 12 million units. Retail sales climbed 5 percent year on year in the first half of 2025, and disposable income grew by 5.3 percent, reflecting improving domestic demand.
Xiong Yi, Deutsche Bank's China Chief Economist, said that China's innovative capacity, the competitiveness of its manufacturing supply chain, and improving domestic demand and business sentiment have increasingly attracted international investors.
"Their remaining concerns center on China's low inflation and still-weak property sector. We believe further improvement in these areas will help attract sustained inflows from global long-term investors," Xiong told Xinhua in a recent interview.
Despite geopolitical uncertainties, many foreign companies continue to see China as indispensable to their global strategies. According to the latest annual member survey released by the U.S.-China Business Council, an organization of more than 270 American companies that do business with China, U.S. firms remain committed to pursuing opportunities in China over the long term and nearly all report they cannot stay globally competitive without their China operations.
Openness is part of China's long-term approach. China's resilience strategy emphasizes greater international integration rather than isolation.
"Similar to what we saw in 2024, China issued a series of policy announcements aimed at creating a more level playing field between foreign and domestic companies, improving market access for foreign enterprises and eliminating discrimination in public procurement," said Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, in a recent interview with Xinhua.
Zhao Bingdi, president of Panasonic China, said the country's recent policies supporting technological platforms and the integration between the digital economy and the real economy will facilitate Panasonic's investments in areas ranging from AI to new energy.
"China is not just a manufacturing giant but a major consumer and innovation hub, offering vast opportunities for foreign firms," said Zhao.
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